English

The new multipolar system is being consolidated. The main actors are the US, China, India and Russia. While the European Union is completely absent and in hiding in the framework of indications-diktats coming from Washington and London, some South American countries, particularly Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina and Uruguay, are showing their steady willingness to actively participate in the construction of the new world order. Russia, with its central position in the Euro-Asian land mass, its vast size and its current orientation stamped on foreign policy by the Putin-Medvedev tandem, will probably be the keystone in the new planetary structure. But to achieve this epochal function, it must overcome some internal problems: first of all, those regarding the demographic question and the modernization of the country, while on the international level it must consolidate relations with China and India and establish strategic agreements with Turkey and Japan as soon as possible. Above all, it must clarify its position in the Near and Middle East.

The flood of cables dumped on the world by the mysterious and secretive Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is certainly one of the most bizarre events in recent intelligence history. Among the documents Brzezinski calls "seeded" with "pointed" facts to "favor an agenda" by an "intelligence agency," are those relating to negotiations between Moscow and Rome’s Berlusconi government over construction of the geopolitically significant South Stream gas pipeline. The clear intent of the pointed leak is to cause political embarrassment to the embattled government of Berlusconi at a vulnerable time when the flamboyant Prime Minister is being inundated with personal scandals and coalition resignations. It seems to date however that the leaks have not deterred Moscow-Rome energy cooperation.

Abkhazia has long ago chosen its own direction, and the public reliance towards the current leadership is an important resource to rule this very particular country. Indeed, Abkhazia will soon clarify the main targets of its economic development, focusing especially on tourism and agronomy. Today, thanks to the improved political stability, there seems to be all the requirements for highly profitable investments, as stated in these days Christina Ozgan, the local Minister of Economy. For a long time, regional conflicts and international tensions have hampered the development of an extremely varied landscape which proved to be very interesting for different business initiatives. But today, in sight of the 2014 Olympic Winter Games in Sochi, few miles from the Abkhazian border, Sergej Bagapsh and his government could show to the international community the reality of a finally resurrected Abkhazia.

The geopolitical history of the Arctic can be divided, in a preliminary approximation, into at least three cycles. A first great cycle, which we can call the cycle of great exploration and of the initial Arctic maritime activity (maritimisation) can be defined starting around 1553, that is, when the English navigator Hugh Willoughby began searching for a North-East passage, and going to the second half of the 1820s. With the new entrant in the circum-polar navigation club, frictions arose that marked the successive phase of the geopolitical history of the Arctic. This is the cycle of sovereignty or territorial claims, which began in 1826 with the delimitation of the frontier and terminated in 1991 with the dissolution of the USSR. The third cycle, which we can define as Arctic regional identity or multilateralism, placed between 1990 and the first years of this century, is marked by Moscow’s slight commitment – geopolitically fallen back into itself after the collapse of soviet structure – in supporting its own regional interests, by the renewed tensions between Canada and the US, by the timid presence of the European Union, which states the so-called policy of the Nordic Dimension, and, in particular, by some international or multilateral initiatives.

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